A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
